There is no current and credible threat from the tropics to the state of Florida.

The purpose of this story is to dispel social media hype and look into why such a threat is unlikely at this time.

Social media has lit up with model runs of the American GFS showing a hurricane threat from the Gulf during the last week of September.

It is the only model showing a Gulf hurricane during that time period. This alone makes any kind of Gulf threat skeptical.

Digging deeper, the GFS model has a well-known bias of developing phantom storms in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

In the long range, the most reliable tools to use to sniff out possible tropical develop are ensembles.

The most reliable ensembles shows little-to-no development in the Gulf.

Ensembles are made up of dozens of individual members with different initial conditions put into them to account for uncertainty.

When there are many members showing a similar solution confidence in an outcome increases.

Less than a handful of the European and Google DeepMind A.I. suggest development around Sept. 21.

Officially, the Climate Prediction Center has an area highlighted east of Florida for possible development, but no Gulf threat.

This is likely from a cold front stalling off the Southeast U.S. aiding in tropical development rather than from anything forming in the deep tropics.

Sept. 10 marks the peak of hurricane season and while it has been quiet, more than 50% of the season remains.

The Atlantic as a whole may have a brief window of favorability at the end of September and early October.

Hurricane season runs through November.